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Structured analysis, dossiers and technical infographics covering defence, security and geopolitical developments.
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Visual intelligence products focused on military systems, technologies and capabilities.
Latest Intelligence Products
Recent assessments, dossiers and visual intelligence products covering current military, strategic, technical and security developments.
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The Uneven Human Cost of Russia’s War in Ukraine
Open-source named-death records show a persistent regional imbalance in Russian military losses, with Tuva and…
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Russia’s Future Military Development
This dossier assesses how Russia’s Armed Forces may evolve from the war against Ukraine. It…
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Su-30SM2 Multirole Fighter — Russian Naval Aviation
The Su-30SM2 is the latest modernised derivative of the Su-30SM in Russian Naval Aviation, with…
Regional Crisis Watch
| Area | Level | Trend | Short rationale | Updated | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RussiaEastern Europe | Critical | → Stable— | Revised fiscal documents indicate a substantial increase in planned Russian defence expenditure for 2027, confirming continued prioritisation of force sustainability and wartime military spending despite growing pressure on civilian expenditure. | Updated today | Previous level: Tension 29 September 2026 — revised budget confirms further increase in 2027 defence expenditure. |
| UkraineEastern Europe | Critical | ↑ Worsening— | Russia continues mixed long-range strike activity involving ballistic missiles and high-speed jet-powered UAVs, compressing Ukrainian air-defence engagement timelines and increasing pressure on scarce high-end interceptors. | Updated today | Previous level: Elevated Crisis Previous trend: Russia continues mixed long-range strike activity involving ballistic missiles and high-speed jet-powered UAVs, compressing Ukrainian air-defence engagement timelines and increasing pressure on scarce high-end interceptors. 30 September 2026 — sustained ballistic missile and high-speed UAV pressure on Kyiv. |
| IranMiddle East | Critical | → Stable— | Qatar-mediated contacts between Iran and the United States continue, but Washington has rejected reports of sanctions relief and no verified de-escalation has emerged. Iranian coercive pressure linked to the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant strategic factor. | Updated today | Previous level: Elevated Crisis 30 September 2026 — US rejects sanctions-relief reports while Qatar continues mediation. |
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